Cut Out of Whole Cloth -- The Tales of Modi - Part 2

In continuation of the series started in the previous post, let's examine what is the truth behind the claim that Vajpayee built the Golden Quadrilateral, and what is the overall performance of the glorified NDA regime versus the much maligned UPA regime in the infrastructure sector.

Hot Air Balloon Number 2:

Vajpayee is the chief architect of infrastructure in India because he built the Golden Quadrilateral, while UPA delivered only scams

What is the Golden Quadrilateral?

I guess the answer would be known to most Indians (at least to those who read blogs!). It's an ambitious national highway network connecting the four prominent metros in India - Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. At 5846 km, it's the fifth longest highway in the world. As discussed in my previous post, national highways constitute less than 2% of India's total road network, but carry over 40% of the traffic. (Don't let that fool you into thinking that you're gonna spend 40% of your own commute time on some national highway! That doesn't happen. National highways mostly carry long-distance traffic, which actually moves, unbeknownst to most, at night. These are the long-route inter-city and inter-state passenger buses, and more importantly, goods and freight traffic on trucks.)

It's not that the Golden Quadrilateral is all new roads -- only a small part is. The major part is repair, widening and re-laying of existing roads, some of which have existed for decades and some even for centuries. For example, the GQ now subsumes the Indian part of the erstwhile Grand Trunk (GT) Road, which is a 2500+ km highway spanning multiple nations -- from Chittagong in Bangladesh, through Kolkata and Delhi in India, Lahore and Peshawar in Pakistan, all the way up to Kabul in Afghanistan. The Grand Trunk road had always been a hotbed of economic activity for the entire subcontinent.

The Grand Trunk Road was first built by Sher Shah Suri, an Afghan ruler who ruled over northern India in the 16th century. At that time, it used to be called as the Shah Rah-e-Azam. Later on, the Mughals stretched it to Kabul. When the British came, they refurbished the highway extensively and named it the Grand Trunk Road. The entire 1485 km Kolkata-Kanpur stretch of the Grand Trunk Road is known as NH2, and is now one arm of the quadrilateral christened Golden by Vajpayee! In fact, even Sher Shah Suri was not the first builder -- the highway could be traced all the way back to the Maurya Dynasty which existed more than a millennium earlier. (Interesting aside: Sher Shah Suri does, however, get credited for being the first to introduce the modern Indian currency -- the rupiya, from the Sanskrit word for 'silver coin'  -- which is also the currency of several other adjacent countries!)

Similar to the NH2 (Kolkata-Delhi), the other arms of the quadrilateral too came from existing national highways -- NH8 (Delhi-Mumbai), NH4 (Mumbai-Chennai) and NH5 (Chennai-Kolkata). The GQ project, launched in 1999, was essentially an exercise in 4-6 laning of the existing highways, not so much an exercise in building new roads. It was part of the National Highways Development Programme (NHDP), funded by a consortium including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the Japanese Bank of International Cooperation, apart from some outlays by the Government of India through petrol/diesel cess, and the shortfall being made good by commercial borrowings. NHDP Phase 1 also included renovation and widening of the other major highway network called the North-South-East-West (NSEW) Corridor -- a 7300+ km stretch going from Srinagar in Kashmir to Kanyakumari in Tamilnadu, and from Porbandar in Gujarat to Silchar in Assam. As regards NS-EW, however, NHDP Phase 1 included work on about 671 km only, about 1/10 of the entire stretch. 

NH2-NH8-NH4-NH5 to be rebranded the Golden Quadrilateral

Source: Finance Ministry Report on Roads (page 11)

(click image to enlarge)

NHDP Phase 1 was launched in Dec 2000 and was scheduled for completion by June 2004 at a cost of Rs 30,300 crore. That's 3.5 years for upgrading a total of 6359 km. Rate -- 6359/3.5 = 1817 km per year = 4.98 kms per day. Cost - 30,300/6359 = 4.76 crore per km.

NHDP Phase-1:  6359 kms to be completed by June 2004

Source: CAG Report of 2005 (page 6)

(click image to enlarge)

Anyway, having invented a catchy phrase like the 'Golden Quadrilateral' (good for brand recall!), the BJP believes it's their showpiece, calling it a Vajpayee brainchild, and likes to trumpet it on every platform. That's fair. If you have achievements, you have every right to publicize them. Provided they are real. But what type of claims do we see getting tom-tom'ed in the media...?

Let's sample a few. Here is BJP national spokesperson Prakash Javadekar claiming:

One of the biggest failures of the UPA government was the inablility to complete the remaining 10 per cent work on the Golden Quadrilateral Express Highway in its four years in office.

Quite clearly, you are being encouraged here by Mr Javadekar to assume that the NDA completed 90% of the Golden Quadrilateral, and just the remaining 10% change too couldn't be finished by the UPA!

Here is BJP General Secretary and Deputy Leader in the Rajya Sabha, Mr Ravi Shankar Prasad, claiming:

Party spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad pointed out — based on official statistics — that by March 2004, a few months before the last general election, 2,612 km out of the total of 5,846 km was completed and work was going on in the remaining stretch.

Here is an editorial(no less!) from The Pioneer, edited by BJP spokesperson Chandan Mitra, and presumably also penned by him:

The UPA Government, which inherited a mammoth infrastructure development programme from the previous NDA regime, has lost the advantage by going slow, instead of pressing ahead. The Golden Quadrilateral is a case in point. The NDA Government had completed three-fourths of the Golden Quadrilateral — the 5,300 km-long, four-lane highway network envisaged by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to connect New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata — within its term, but the remaining one-fourth remains incomplete after more than six years of UPA rule.

So, the Vajpayee government built 75%, nay even 90%, of the Golden Quadrilateral, Mr Chandan Mitra and Mr Prakash Javadekar...? Really...? Then how come Mr Ravi Shankar Prasad, who was actually part of the Vajpayee government, claims only 2612 km, which is 2612/5846 = 44.7%...? 

Shall we see now what the truth is...?

As per the official status update provided to the Rajya Sabha on 15-Jul-2004 by the then Minister of State for Roads and Highways, only 1845 km had been four-laned by Mar 2004. That's just 1845/5846 = 31.6%. This is when Vajpayee called elections, and two months before the next government took over.

Length of Golden Quadrilateral Four-Laned when Vajpayee quit

Source: Rajya Sabha statement by Minister of Roads

(click image to enlarge)

Well, going by its capacity to capture the public imagination, and for being the touchstone of authenticity, what is more credible today than a CAG report...? Let's see what the official audit by the Comptroller and Auditor General found about the Vajpayee government's performance on the Golden Quadrilateral:

As per CAG, only 1846 of 6359 km of NHDP-Ph-1 completed by June-2004

Source: Report in The Hindu Businessline

(click image to enlarge)

Here is a graphic from the OFFICIAL CAG Report illustrating Vajpayee's performance on NHDP-Phase1 (which was essentially the Golden Quadrilateral, constituting about 92% of the total). According to it, by Jun-2004 Vajpayee had completed just 1846 km (29%) of the planned length of 6359 km, and that goes up to 2583 km (41%) only if one counts even partially completed stretches. Therefore, by quoting 2612 km, Mr Ravi Shankar Prasad was glibly reporting 766 km of partial construction too, and that too by overstatement, because the actual completion even counting partial stretches was 2583 km by Jun-2004, not 2612 km by Mar-2004!

CAG Report: NDA completed just 29% of the NHDP1

 (Golden Quadrilateral was 92% of the entire NHDP1)

Source: CAG Report on NHAI (page 11)

(click image to enlarge)

And here is report card on the annual progress made by Vajpayee on NHDP-Phase 1 (read Golden Quadrilateral). It shows that 

CAG Report: Year-wise progress on NHDP-Phase1 

from Dec-2000 to June-2004

Source: CAG Report on NHAI (page 42)

(click image to enlarge)

And here is what the CAG said in its conclusive remarks on the NHDP-Phase 1.

CAG Report on NHDP Conclusive Remarks

Source: CAG Report on NHAI (page 38)

(click image to enlarge)

Let me interpret that for you. Vajpayee launched the National Highways Development Project in 1998, immediately after coming to power. At the end of Jun-2004, the CAG report clearly shows that Vajpayee had built 1846 km of national highways -- just 29% of the planned length of 6359 kms. In fact, from 1998 to Dec 2000, just 948 km had been awarded as contracts -- no actual construction had even started. Vajpayee's run rate in terms of his most trumpeted project -- the Golden Quadrilateral --  was:

1. (505-274)/365 = 0.74 kms/day in the 1st year (Mar2001-Mar2002)
2. (897-505)/365 = 1.07 kms/day in the 2nd year (Mar2002-Mar2003)
3. (1684-897)/365 = 2.16 kms/day in the third year (Mar2003-Mar2004)
4. (1846-1684)/90 = 1.8 kms/day in the last quarter of his rule (Mar2004-Jun2004)

And, hold on, did you happen to note what The Hindu quoted the CAG as reporting...?

CAG: Potential losses due to underperformance of NHDP - 4902 crores

Source: Report in The Hindu Businessline

(click image to enlarge)

That's a total of (4300+560+42) = 4902 crores in potential losses because "deficient planning and inefficient contract management by the design and project consultants led to underperformance in achieving the target." Inflation (CPI) during the last 10 years being at about 8% per year, 4902 crores in 2004 amounts to 4902*(1.08)^10 = 10583 crores in 2014. Do you realize what stares you in the face...? In today's parlance (and by current prices), it's a 10583 crore SCAM!! The Vajpayee government caused a potential loss of Rs 10500 crore through underperformance in the Golden Quadrilateral. This is as per the CAG report! 

How come no media went to town with this SCAM...? Where is Arnab Goswami...? Where is Sushma Swaraj...? Where is Arvind Kejriwal...? A 10500 crore SCAM by the Vajpayee-led NDA on the Golden Quadrilateral, and no SCAM-mongering on television...?  A 10500 crore SCAM by the Vajpayee-led NDA on the Golden Quadrilateral, and no Parliament sessions washed away...?  A 10500 crore SCAM by the Vajpayee-led NDA on the Golden Quadrilateral, and no JPC...? How come...??? The nation wants to know. Tonight!

Cut Out of Whole Cloth -- The Tales of Modi - Part 1

One cannot but marvel at the astounding pieces of statistics dished out by Modi's men, as achievements of the Vajpayee NDA era. While one does expect that Messrs APCO Worldwide would do a great job of window dressing, given that they have already shown outstanding customer service record burnishing the images of worthies like Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, Kazakh President-for-Life Nazarbayev, Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha, and for 'managing' the accounting scandals of once-media-darlings-later-gone-bust companies like Worldcom and Yukos Oil (Russian version of Enron Oil), one still hopes that the gullible public at large would learn from the past experiences of being taken for a ride. If you thought the One-India campaign of Modi has anything to do with the One-Israel and One-Malaysia campaigns of the respective regimes there (both APCO clients!), remember that it's nothing but pure coincidence. Or there may at most be, as they say, 'inspiration'...!

With that hope let's examine how the claims of Modi's media managers fare when compared with actual facts. I'd be doing a series of posts, starting with this one, examining the oft-bandied claims vis-a-vis documentary evidence from official sources, which are incontrovertible in nature, and all available online for any interested reader to cross-check and verify.

(Much as I'd want to defer to the twitter-age attention span of readers, and love to present the case in 140 characters, I'm afraid I do not have that much skill of compression, nor does the evidence lend itself to that. So, you'll have to read on if you wish to get the lowdown!)


Hot Air Balloon Number 1: 
Vajpayee built 50% of the national highways in India

This one is the top-of-the-line propaganda. That Vajpayee built 24000 kms of national highways in just 5 years, which is more than what was built in the three previous decades. The net is full of this completely bogus piece of (mis)information, which is much in the same vein as bogus rumors that 33% of NASA employees are Indians! Here is what BJP's Ravishankar Prasad claims:

BJP spokesman Ravi Shankar Prasad drew attention to the Centre's admission before the Supreme Court that the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government had fared much better on the construction of highways. In an affidavit, the Centre had admitted that the BJP-led government had in five years constructed half the total length of national highways laid over the past 32 years. "Shouldn't Manmohan Singh be held to the same standard that he and his friends set for AB Vajpayee?" asked Prasad.

Here is what another BJP propangandist, Shubham Ghosh, masquerading as a newspaper columnist writes in the DNA newspaper:

"It also revealed that during 1997-2002, the period under the Ninth Five Year Plan, 23,814 km was constructed, which means nearly 50 per cent of the total road constructed in the last three decades, which remains a record since independence."

Please note -- the columnist above does not even say "50% of national highways" but "50% of total roads", giving off  an air that would lead a gullible reader in a hurry to conclude that Vajpayee as if built half of the entire road infrastructure of the country in 5 years. 

For those who don't know it yet -- national highways constitute just about 1.7% of the total road network of India, which stands at around 47+ lakh kms.

Ok, so Vajpayee built 50% of India's national highways...? Really...?

Let's see what the length of national highways was when Vajpayee demited office, as per the official government records published by the Ministry of Roads during Vajpayee's time.

1) Length of National Highways in March 2004 
    (When Vajpayee leaves power): 65569 kms

Source: Basic Raod Statistics Report 2004-2008 of Ministry of Road Transport and Highways(check the table on page 13 of the pdf):

Length of National Highways in March 2004
When Vajpayee Calls Elections
(Click image to enlarge)

2) Length of National Highways in March 1998 
    (When Vajpayee becomes PM): 49600 kms

Source: GOI Budget-time Economic Survey Report of March-1998: 

(Please note that the Economic Survey is presented in March of every year, prior to the budget, and reflects the performance of the previous year, with forward looking statements for the ensuing year. Therefore the 98-99 survey reflects the status as of March 1998, when Vajpayee took over as PM.)

Length of National Highways in Mar 1998
When Vajpayee Becomes PM
(Click image to enlarge)

Therefore, how many kilometers of national highways got added in Vajpayee's era? As per Vajpayee's own submissions to Parliament, it's (65569 - 49600) = 15969 kms.

Now, let's take the analysis further back, and see how many kilometers got added in the immediate 7 years preceding Vajpayee. This is the Rao/Devegowda/Gujral period of 1991-1998.


3) Length of National Highways in March 1991 
    (Narasimha Rao becomes PM): 33650 kms

Source: Basic Raod Statistics Report 2008-2011 of Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (check page 9 of the pdf)

Length of National Highways in March 1991

When Narasimha Rao becomes PM

(Click image to enlarge)

4) Length of National Highways in March 1997 
(When Gujral becomes PM): 38445 kms

Source: GOI Budget-time Economic Survey Report of March-1997: 

Length of National Highways in March 1997 

(When Gujral becomes PM)

(Click image to enlarge)

So, how does all the evidence stack up? Please see the chart below, which compares the seven years of Rao-Devegowda-Gujral regime, with the six years of Vajpayee regime. 

(Note that all figures quoted above are from OFFICIAL government publications, not mere newspaper reports or opinion pieces of columnists. Please check the source links, and satisfy yourself of their authenticity.)

Vajpayee Years versus Rao/Devegowda/Gujral Years
(Click image to enlarge)

What does the chart show? Vajpayee built a total of 19 kms (no lakhs, no thousands -- just 19 kms!) of national highways more than what his immediate predecessors did in roughly the same duration of 6+ years. (Vajpayee ruled for 6 years and 2 months, while Rao+Devegowda+Gujral together ruled for 6 years and 9 months.)

So, where does this mythology of Vajpayee having built 50% of India's national highways arise from...? I'll explain.

The root of it is the Ninth Plan NHDP report (check table on page 8 of the pdf) which shows that 23814 kms were added during the period 1997-2002.

Planwise Addition to National Highways
(Click image to enlarge)

So, if the NHDP report shows that 23814 kms were added during the Ninth Plan, during which Vajpayee was in power, doesn't it follow that they were built by Vajpayee...? The answer is: it doesn't. The report covers the period 1997-2002. Vajpayee became PM only in Mar 1998. Therefore, obviously the Ninth Plan report also captures the highways built during the 1997-98 period during which Gujral was in power.

The excerpt below clearly shows that Ninth Plan was drafted in Feb 1997 -- one full year before Vajpayee became PM. Therefore, it follows that the Eighth Plan was close to expiry by then, unless already expired. Therefore, performance of the Ninth Plan would cover everything following the expiry of Eighth Plan, which includes about one year of Gujral's rule as well.

Ninth Five Year Plan Period
(Click image to expand)

The question now, therefore, is: how many kilometers of national highways were added in the 1997-98 period during which Vajpayee was NOT in power, but which got counted in the Ninth Plan...?

The answer is easily available from Gujral's and Vajpayee's submissions to Parliament through their Economic Survey reports, presented in Mar 1997 and Mar 1998 respectively, as already quoted by me in points (1) and (3) above. India had 38445 kms of national highways in March 1997 (Gujral becomes PM) and had 49600 kms in Mar 1998 (Vajpayee becomes PM). Therefore, in Gujral's regime 49600-38445=11155 kms got added in the 1997-98 period. This clearly has to subtracted from the 23814 kms to correctly count Vajpayee's own contribution in the Ninth Plan. 

And Vajpayee's share in the Ninth Plan thus becomes 23814-11155 = 12659 kms. Remember, this is in the period 1998-2002. I have already shown above that if you consider the entire Vajpayee regime period of 1998-2004, he has added 15969 kms in 6 years, which is just 19 kms more than what Rao+Devegowda+Gujral built in the immediately preceding 7 years.

So, what percentage did Vajpayee actually build...? Given that India's current length of national highways is 79243 kms, Vajpayee built 15969/79243=20.15% of national highways, NOT 50% as misleadingly claimed. And, guess what, Rao+Devegowda+Gujral too built 15950/79243=20.12%. Is that a revolution that Vajpayee brought about...?

Therefore, if there ever was a golden period of highway building, it was the Gujral regime, which lasted just one year. In that ONE year, Gujral built 11000+ kms, whereas Vajpayee could build just under 16000 kms in the SIX following years. Wow! How does it compute...?? Pretty evidently, it was Rao/Manmohan Singh's policies showing effect with a lag, two years after they left power (although two years is a long enough period for Devegowda/Gujral too to get a share of the credit). It was Rao who had launched the National Highways Development Programme one year before he left office. The results started showing only a couple of years down the line.

Modi's men simply usurped the performance of the Gujral year, and credited it disingenuously to Vajpayee, by clubbing it all under the Ninth Plan. (Well, the clubbing was not wrong per se -- because it was after all the performance during the Ninth Plan period. The dishonesty lies in crediting to Vajpayee the kilometers that were added even before he took power -- and that number was 8000+ kms. Vajpayee built 16K kms in 6 years, not 24K kms in 5 years.)

(This is going to be a running series, with the analysis of one or two claims presented in each post. Therefore, do keep watching this space and come back for the next one in a few days time. Do scrutinize my analyses, and post your comments, especially if you can detect any holes in the facts presented or the conclusions drawn. It's essential for people to base decisions on the correct facts -- well, not true for the fanatics who'll anyway shut their eyes, but for those who do have a healthy interest in knowing and examining the facts and figures.)